Hundred years ago continue for centuries you profit model

 Porcelain and other access to the trade surplus, and now, we still maintain such a human capital advantage for the trade surplus with the profit model. At the same time, Western countries But with technological and transnational business strategy for big profits. the cost of human resources in China is still low circumstances, to change the existing trade profit model seems unlikely. to completely change the model, we must improve the existing factors of production the cost price, and in particular the need to control population, while by increasing investment in education to enhance human resource costs.
Lee Thunder / Man
m China's trade surplus profit model for several hundred years of economic growth in a country
by consumption, investment and net exports (trade surplus), \64%, becoming the number one main force driving economic growth. Over the past 10 years, foreign trade in China's growing role in economic growth, large (Table 1), the trade surplus will undoubtedly become an important support for China's economic profit model.
fact, As early as a few hundred years ago, China chose such a human capital advantage for the trade surplus with the profit model. before the Opium War,UGGs, China's share of global GDP has been the first (general estimates account for more than 20% of the world) .1689 , the British trade with China in Guangzhou officially became China's largest trading nation. China to the United Kingdom, France, Spain and other European countries, the export of silk, porcelain, etc., to maintain a trade surplus of more than 100 years of status (Table 2), and the results is a continuous flow of world silver the Chinese, and European monetary precious metals shortage there.
addition to European and American trade, China and Southeast Asian countries, especially Japan's trade surplus also maintained the status obtained from the Japan most of the silver produced in the country. ,1550-1800 it is estimated that about 250 years years, China has received about 12 million taels of silver, this time accounting for about half the world's silver production (Barrett, Ward.1990), Other scholars are more conservative estimates suggest that China's share during that period of at least 1/4-1/3 of global silver production. In short, such a large trade imbalance will certainly lead to the imperialist powers to seize any means of silver , the direct cause of the Opium War in 1840 the British East India Company to obtain the silver and opium smuggling.
trade surplus by stimulating economic growth further down the road narrow
2005, China's trade surplus with the United States reached 114.2 billion U.S. dollars (according to U.S. statistics diameter of about 170 billion U.S. dollars), higher than the total amount of China's global trade surplus, the total U.S. trade deficit of 1 / 4 from China. and the end of 2005, China's foreign exchange reserve amounted to 818.9 billion U.S. dollars, such as with Hong Kong's 124.3 billion U.S. dollars, China surpassed Japan to become the country with the highest foreign exchange reserves. China's current trade status and foreign exchange reserves, does have some similarities with the 200 years ago.
then, after the end of World War II replaced Britain as the global hegemony of the United States, the United Kingdom will not be as current as the Chinese to launch a \Today, the ability to avoid war increased accordingly. The problem is, the advantages of low labor costs through to sustained trade surplus of the model, it can go on forever?
In fact, with China's foreign trade dependency rising China and the U.S. and Europe are also escalating trade friction .2005 called trade disputes,UGG shoes, the European and American Chinese Textile international repercussions since the founding of the dispute is the largest trade dispute, the affected number of people employed in China, involving the export value Prior to the giant of China's foreign trade disputes are not seen in the beginning of the year .2006, Europe once again anti-dumping on Chinese shoes. alleged to have been in China more than 4,000 products by the importing country investigation. In addition to the export of goods subject to anti-dumping, countervailing and special safeguard measures and other non-trade barriers stand, the Western countries on China's exchange rate policy and intellectual property protection and other aspects of the accused are increasingly frequent. In this context, the Chinese relied on this model to the road will promote economic growth go more and more difficult.
Moreover, this advantage with low human capital-oriented economic model of China's own living environment also caused long-term negative impact. Qing Dynasty, due to great demand for silk export , resulting in the southeast provinces to plant mulberry trees cut down forests, and as a result of population growth increased demand for food, also led to deforestation, land reclamation of the consequences. Therefore, China's forest area decreased in recent decades it does not, in fact, can be traced back to the 17th century. Today, the traditional varieties have been exported textiles, clothing, footwear, toys, and replaced, but the essence is still labor-intensive products, or in two or three hundred years ago continue to have a comparative advantage. Of course, unlike in the past is that foreign enterprises operating in China's processing trade exports and net exports is almost evenly divided,UGG boots cheap, China became the world's factory (rather than real world factory), the underlying reason is because there is an inexhaustible supply of cheap human capital . Thus, China's foreign trade and comparative advantage no fundamental changes over the centuries, 200 years ago, the foreign trade activity and economic prosperity of the South, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other coastal areas, it is also the most economically developed regions in China.